LONDON, July 15 — The cost of sending cargo into low Earth orbit could fall by more than 90 percent by 2040, potentially opening the way for new industries ranging from zero-gravity research to manufacturing in space, according to a study released Tuesday by the University of Cambridge.
Researchers said the average cost of launching one kilogram of payload into low Earth orbit was 3,868 U.S. dollars in 2025. That could fall by more than 58 percent to 1,569 dollars by 2030 and to as low as 273 dollars by 2040. The study, published in the journal PNAS Nexus, analyzed more than 4,400 launches conducted by various countries between 1960 and 2025, which the researchers described as the largest global dataset of rocket launches assembled to date. It found that the average cost of reaching orbit fell by about 96 percent over the period, from more than 87,000 dollars per kilogram in 1960. Every doubling of cumulative payload cut the average cost of sending a kilogram into orbit by 21.2 percent. That rate was faster than the decline in freight costs during the 19th-century steamship revolution, when shipping costs fell by around 15.5 percent for each doubling of cargo volumes such as wheat and cotton, the researchers said. It also slightly exceeded the rate at which the cost of solar photovoltaic technology has fallen as installed capacity expanded. “The cost of space launch technology is now falling faster than during one of history’s greatest transport revolutions,” said Alessio Terzi from the University of Cambridge’s Bennett School of Public Policy, who led the study.”Steamships cut costs through explosive growth in global trade. Space technology, by contrast, has achieved even steeper declines at a far smaller scale. This suggests there is plenty of scope for further cost reductions and the industry may now be on the cusp of a comparable economic boom,” said Terzi.
The amount of payload launched into orbit has increased sharply since 2020, growing by about 31 percent a year, compared with average annual growth of 4 percent between 2000 and 2019. Around 4,900 tons were launched in 2025, according to the study. Terzi and co-author Francesco Nicoli from the Politecnico Institute of Turin forecast that annual capacity could reach about 9,100 tons by 2030 and 32,000 tons by 2040. Lower launch costs could support commercial activities including zero-gravity research, orbital tourism and manufacturing products in space for use on Earth, such as fiber-optic cables and 3D-bioprinted organs, the researchers said. They also pointed to longer-term possibilities including orbital solar power, asteroid mining and the production of fuel, food and infrastructure in orbit or on the moon.
Xinhua
