CAIRO, July 18 — Renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran have put their recently signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) under severe strain, heightening concerns that further escalation could plunge the Middle East into a wider conflict.
The latest escalation began with U.S. strikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities and radar sites along Iran’s coast, which Washington said had been involved in drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran launched attacks against U.S. military installations across the region, particularly in the Gulf states, undermining hopes that the MoU signed in June, intended as a stepping stone toward a comprehensive agreement, would restore calm. Analysts believe that neither side would benefit from a prolonged, full-scale conflict, although further limited strikes could keep the region on high alert.
STRATEGIC CALCULATIONS
While the current escalation was sparked by disputes over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it reflects a range of deep-seated and unresolved disagreements that have long strained relations between the United States and Iran. Experts point out that at the core of the standoff are differences over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and navigation security in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside broader competition over regional influence and control over strategic energy routes.
Muhammad Ahmad Mursi, a professor of political science and international relations at Misr University for Science and Technology in Egypt, said that Washington seeks guarantees for safe passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, while Tehran wants any agreement to safeguard its sovereignty, ease sanctions, and address disputes over its nuclear program. “While the United States can inflict significant damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, Iran also has the capacity to endure a prolonged conflict,” Mursi noted. “Transforming military superiority into political or strategic victory is extremely difficult. There is no alternative to diplomacy.”
For former Mossad official and Iran expert Sima Shine, the latest escalation is also a reflection of both sides’ attempts to strengthen their bargaining positions. “The United States has sought to use military and economic pressure to bring Iran back to the negotiating table and secure an agreement on terms more favorable to Washington … Iran, meanwhile, seeks to preserve political stability, maintain leverage in negotiations, and avoid allowing military pressure to force it into strategic capitulation,” Shine said.
ESCALATION RISKS
Looking ahead, experts suggest that while both sides retain the capacity to escalate tensions, a degree of restraint remains the most pragmatic choice given their respective political and strategic interests. “The most likely scenario is de-escalation through negotiations, though limited strikes may continue,” Mursi said, adding that recent warnings and threats of further military action from both sides were intended more to advance diplomatic contacts than to trigger uncontrolled escalation. He warned that any wider conflict would revive inflation, disrupt global trade through higher shipping and insurance costs, and strain energy-importing economies.
Echoing Mursi’s point, Mustafa Ibrahim, a Gaza-based political analyst, said “neither side appears interested in a full-scale war” given the costs of escalation. “An agreement remains possible if both sides can reach understandings on the key issues, particularly sanctions relief, U.S. policies regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and the other unresolved disputes,” Ibrahim added.
Omar al-Hassan, a former Arab League ambassador to Britain, was less optimistic, noting the confrontation had harmed the United States, Iran, Gulf states, and the broader Arab world. While regional mediation efforts are underway, al-Hassan said, to genuinely contain further deterioration of the situation, broader regional and international engagement is indispensable. “The negotiation path is the only way,” he emphasized.
Xinhua
